Just a few months ago, the horn of Africa was considered a volatile region and a suitable ground for harboring terrorists as neighboring countries had feuds among themselves. Neighbors harbored armed groups working to overthrow governments in neighboring countries. There were lingering feuds between Eritrea and Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia and Sudan and South Sudan. Despite the political and diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, there was also a sense of mistrust between the two.
The past four months have, however, seen a strong wind of cooperation and peace blowing through the horn of Africa region. Among the most notable of these positive developments is the Ethio-Eritrean peace that turned around the couple of decades of a military standoff between the two. Another notable march towards peace in the region is the agreement between the two warring sides in South Sudan led by Riek Machar and Salva Kier. Yet another one is the cooperation between Somalia and Eritrea.
This new found hope for peace and cooperation has followed the process of change in Ethiopia. It is no coincidence that such a positive development in the region follows the dawn of an era of hope in Ethiopia. After the tour of Ethiopian regional states that went a long way to herald a period of unity between Ethiopians, the new government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (Ph.D.) turned its attention to neighboring countries. Before his talks with Eritrea, PM Abiy visited Djibouti, the Sudan and Kenya respectively. The main agenda he sought to promote with these countries was economic integration and the use of their ports by Ethiopia.
Even before PM Abiy came to power, the Hailemariam Desalegn administration ventured out to expand Ethiopia’s access to the sea. After becoming a landlocked country following the secession of Eritrea, Ethiopia has largely depended on the port of Djibouti as its main access to the sea. Accordingly, as much as 98% of the country’s imports and exports pass through the port while Ethiopian cargos account for 80% of the total freight transited through the port of Djibouti. In a bid to diversify its routes to the sea, Hailemariam’s administration struck a deal with DP World and Somaliland to use and develop the port of Berbera.
In his tour of the region, PM Abiy also piled up on such efforts by strengthening Ethiopia’s ports relation with its neighbors. The Prime Minister visited the Port of Djibouti, Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT) and the Djibouti Industrial Park. During his visit, Djibouti and Ethiopia agreed to partner on port development. Some sources indicate that the port to be developed would be granted to Ethiopia in a rent-free lease. Other reports state that the agreement would allow Ethiopia to have shares in Djibouti Port and have a say on port fees. Djibouti would, on the other hand, have a stake in a preferred Ethiopian public enterprise expected to be one of Ethiopian Airlines or ethio-telecom. Such huge moves to own stakes in major public enterprises along with cooperation in other sectors are believed to have tied the fate of the two countries together more tightly than ever before.
After striking such deals with Djibouti, PM Abiy went to the Sudan and similarly pushed the economic integration between the two countries to a new frontier. One of his main derivatives of the Sudan trip was the agreement to develop Port Sudan together with the Sudanese in a deal that saw Ethiopia become a shareholder of Port Sudan. PM Abiy’s visit to Kenya also featured the same outcomes as the previous two as Ethiopia agreed to acquire land in Kenya’s Lamu port to develop for logistics facilitation.
It is, therefore, consistent with the trends that Ethiopia seeks to use the Assab port after its peace agreements with Eritrea. All the political, social and economic packages PM Abiy’s administration offered Djibouti, the Sudan and Kenya have consistently been pursued with Eritrea. The use of Assab port would significantly bolster Ethiopia’s need to diversify its access to the sea.
Ethiopia’s peace and cooperation with Eritrea is by no means a betrayal of Djibouti as the cooperative environment in the horn of Africa that the new government in Ethiopia is working to realize positions Djibouti in the middle of it. The drive for peace in the region started by Ethiopia has now embraced Eritrea and South Sudan. It would by no means end there as far as other states want to follow suit and turn around the recent history of intrigue between neighbors.
Recent efforts by Ethiopia and Somalia to have UN sanctions on Eritrea revoked demonstrate the new found sense of brotherhood and cooperation in the region. This sense of solidarity should also be extended to embrace Djibouti-Eritrea relations. The effort by the Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo to share his understanding with the President of Djibouti Ismail Omar Guelleh is a step in the right direction. Recent misunderstandings between Djibouti and Ethiopia should also be resolved through bilateral talks. The Djibouti-Eritrea feud is the final hurdle to a lasting peace in the horn and all neighbors should work to resolve the matter as quickly as possible.
It is only under such a peaceful and cooperative regional setting that individual states can meet their developmental goals. The fact that a peaceful condition can build on the region’s reputation as a suitable manufacturing hub and a magnate for investment holds only one of the derivatives of peace. Increased social and economic integration can also help achieve common economic goals. Under such conditions, Ethiopia’s use of Assab would not be a headache for Djibouti as the cooperative environment would help find ways to do things in a way that does harm to no one. In the long run, the peaceful and cooperative environment in the region would also contribute to rapid economic growth in the region which would translate to increased imports and exports. Therefore, the right answer for concerns that Ethiopia’s use of Assab could harm Djibouti port’s business is to extend the regional sentiment for cooperation and peace to embrace Djibouti and Eritrea relations.