One of the world’s longest rivers, the Nile cuts through eleven African countries with a combined population of 437 million. From headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands (for the Blue Nile) and the Great Lakes countries of Rwanda and Burundi (White Nile), the river’s two main branches merge at Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, before flowing north through Egypt and finally into the Mediterranean Sea. Despite its wide reaching traverse, the water has been hardly used to benefit the lives of impoverished millions dwelling along its banks.
Ethiopia began to construct the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 to fill the wide power gap it is facing and use it for various development endeavors. But, the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan have shown concerns from the outset that it may affect their share and use of the water in their respective lands. Ethiopia has made it clear that the dam is designed and is being constructed in ways that have almost no effect on the downstream and other riparian states of the sub-region. This gave rise to the need for an agreement on the operation and use of the renaissance dam between the three countries, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will offer great benefits to all 11 countries and their citizens. The 11 nations are hoping that the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is currently under construction, will open up many new opportunities from electric power supply to reducing evaporation losses. Egypt and Ethiopia can use the GERD to cement their economic cooperation in the interest of Africa’s greater quest of achieving regional integration and economic development. The GERD could yield other benefits for Sudan. Purchasing hydro-electricity from Ethiopia will likely be cheaper than producing it domestically. Better-controlled water flow likewise would enable it to boost its hydropower production.
Hence, the three countries have engaged in talks since 2014 to reach a final agreement on operating the Renaissance dam and its impact on Egypt and Sudan. As a result, the Declaration of Principles between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was agreed at the 7th ministerial meeting on March 2015. The Declaration of Principles also has principles specific to the GERD.
The three states agree to cooperate in implementation of outcomes of joint studies on the GERD. Specifically, they agreed on guidelines and rules for filling of GERD, annual operation of GERD, and to inform downstream States of any unforeseen or urgent circumstances. Priority is also given to downstream states to purchase power generated by GERD. They agreed as well to work together on the dam safety. The document calls on all sides to “cooperate based on common understanding, mutual benefit and good faith.” This is encouraging development not only for the Nile riparian countries but also others who may be interested to draw lessons learnt from the process.
As experiences in other shared waters being used for the mutual benefits of all countries indicates, cooperation is not an option but an imperative. As experts in the area indicated, cooperation refers to the joint and organized management and use of freshwater resources at local, national, regional and international levels among various players and sectors. Cognizant of this, the three countries have been engaged on a series of negotiations for the stated purpose.
However, Egypt, during the recent tripartite negotiations in Cairo, has submitted a new proposal that is not in tandem with the consensus and declaration of principles that were reached during the previous negotiations. Ethiopian Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy, briefing journalists on the issue said Ethiopia has rejected Egypt’s latest proposal on the filling of the dam’s reservoir.
Egypt has proposed its own plans which suggested the filling of the dam’s reservoir to be conducted within seven years period of time and a minimum guaranteed release of 40 billion meter cubic (BMC) of water every year as well as demand to maintain High Aswan Dam (HAD) at 165 meter above sea level, he noted. Ethiopia also rejected the 40 BMC annual release of water on the bases that “such stringent condition of annual flow release is not acceptable to Ethiopia as it prolongs the filling of the GERD.”
With regard to Egypt’s demand “to maintain High Aswan Dam (HAD) at 165 meter above sea level”, Ethiopia rejected the demand saying “this request is technically impractical and is tantamount to agreeing to hold the operation of the GERD hostage to Egyptian water use downstream. Further since Ethiopia cannot control Egyptian water use/withdrawal from HAD, agreeing to this demand means ending up in perpetual ‘water debt.'”
“The request by Egypt is not practical and, therefore, Ethiopia outright rejects it,” a classified document on the issue reads and concluded that when all the elements of the Egyptian proposal are considered in aggregate, the commutative effect will result in: a) Prolong the filing of GERD indefinitely; b) GERD will primarily be there to compensate for Egyptian water deficit, serving as second backup reservoir to HAD; c) GERD will not deliver its economic return to Ethiopia; d) The proposed Permanent coordination Mechanism infringes on Ethiopia’s sovereignty; e) Ethiopia will forfeit its rights to equitable and reasonable utilization of the Blue Nile water resources.
“Ethiopia rejected the proposal because it breached the agreement signed between the three countries on fair and reasonable utilization of the waters of the Nile River,” Sileshi said. He added Ethiopia rejected the proposal because it pushes the country into “unnecessary and harmful obligation.” Ethiopia will prepare and submit a different counter proposal, he said.
"An Egyptian expert can't control our dam," Sileshi said and described the Egyptian plan as a potential violation of Ethiopia's sovereignty. Previously, following construction delays, Ethiopia has said GERD will start power production by the end of 2020 and be fully operational by 2022.
The ministries of water resources from the three countries will convene on October 4-5 to discuss the issue of filling and operating the Renaissance Dam. Egypt has offered a technical vision based on limiting the filling years of the reservoir from seven to ten years but Ethiopia refused increasing the number of filling years and sticked to only three years.
At the same time, Cairo rejected Ethiopia's proposal and expressed its worry on the matter that the dams filling and operation may affect its water share. It is high time for the three countries to deal on the matter based on good will to strike at an agreement that will be in tandem with the interest of all. Despite the differences, Egypt and Ethiopia have been keen in recent years to emphasize the strength of their relations. Hence, the upcoming negotiation is expected to fill this gap and step up the economic and diplomatic ties between the three countries ahead.
The meeting of the independent scientific group of experts from the countries which will be held in Khartoum between September 30 and October 3, followed by a two-day meeting of the three states' Water Resources and Irrigation Ministers on October 4, is expected to be highly fruitful. Its aim to resolve the technical dispute between the Egyptian, Ethiopian and Sudanese visions on the rules of filling the dam should be made a reality via efficient negotiations.